Community Comments on Google's Acquisition of SageTV

[sumrtym]

I stopped by the Google Fiber Space yesterday as a matter of fact. I'm outside the expansion area, and nothing is announced of course for us. My estimation is at least 2015 if they were to expand outward into other suburbs.

That being said, it was really neat to see / play with their Nexus 7 application for browsing and shifting video between devices. It's all very slick.

You can upload your own music / videos via your pc and an application so you can run your own files on the Google boxes, but the actual TV recordings are in a protected, non-visible section. And of course I understand why they are doing that.

However, I know I can't be the only one who felt a major draw of SageTV was allowing me to do what the hell I want with my recordings (back them up, view elsewhere, burn them, etc). Even if Google comes to my area (and I think it's more likely "when" rather than if), I'll probably end up running the really crazy connection of Google Sage outputting to a Sage system (temporary recordings to Google Sage, recapturing any to be made permanent from Google Sage to SageTV where movies / kept tv / music is used.

Best of both worlds.

EDIT: Hmm, actually, at that point, other than running a new capture through whatever program of a played file from the google TV system, I might as well go XBMC or something at that point. I wouldn't be using the SageTV scheduling, etc.

[brainbone]

Originally Posted by phareous

They bought Sage for the technology to use in their Fiber project...they could care less about the non-Fiber market.

It's possible that there could be a non-fiber version.

From here:
https://plus.google.com/106418316475...ts/7NLbtpJUdvC

Jeff's response to a comment from Chuck Fredericks stating "This looks sweet. Makes me sad that there isn't a "non-fiber" version for the rest of us." was "Chuck, no comment on your comment right now. :-) Stay tuned."

While Jeff's response doesn't say much, that he responded to the comment at all is telling.

[panteragstk]

He's been telling us not to lose faith from the beginning of this. Yet another indication that we should do just that.

[Tiki]

Originally Posted by brainbone

It's possible that there could be a non-fiber version.

From here:
https://plus.google.com/106418316475...ts/7NLbtpJUdvC

Jeff's response to a comment from Chuck Fredericks stating "This looks sweet. Makes me sad that there isn't a "non-fiber" version for the rest of us." was "Chuck, no comment on your comment right now. :-) Stay tuned."

While Jeff's response doesn't say much, that he responded to the comment at all is telling.

Here are my thoughts on this...

First, there are two simple facts about Google that people must realize:
1. Google's core business is serving up targeted advertising.
2. To serve their core business, Google does 2 things: (1) collect as much data as possible about people so they can be more effective at targeting their ads, and (2) encourage people to spend as much time as possible on-line so they will be exposed to ads.

Everything that Google does is about collecting data, encouraging people to spend time on-line, or both.

As an example, look at Android. They didn't try to monetize it directly, they open-sourced it and let other companies build and sell the hardware.

With the Google Fiber experiment, I think they have several goals that all tie back to collecting data and encouraging people to spend time on-line.

1. As internet access gets faster, more reliable, and more ubiquitous, it becomes possible (and practical) to do more and more things on-line (some of which haven't even been invented yet). This makes the internet a bigger and more essential part of our everyday lives and we spend more time on-line (more opportunities to see Google ads).
2. As Google rolls-out high speed fiber internet and tv services, they might spur the competition to do the same. Google doesn't have to blanket the country with Google Fiber, they just need to convince (scare) TWC, Comcast, Cox, etc. to improve their services. Kansas City could be to cable and internet like the Nexus phones and tablets are to Android - basically a reference design to set the tone for others.
3. The SageTV wiz.bin already tracks every show we've ever watched. Currently it's not shared with anyone (not even Sage) - it's just used to keep track of watched status, favorite setups, and to drive the Intelligent Suggestions. But, I would be surprised if Google doesn't tap into this goldmine going forward. Sage also lets us view internet content. I don't think Wiz.bin tracks any of this now, but Google could easily track this as well.

If they are successful in KC, I could see them rolling the Sage-Google products and services out separately from Google Fiber, just so they can collect more data.

One other thought is that Google owns the Motorola, including the division that makes set top boxes for most of the major cable providers in the US. If the KC experiment is successful, they could roll it into set-top boxes that they sell to Comcast and others. This might be a tough sell, but some providers of cable and satellite are already licensing TiVo, so why not Sage?

[brainbone]

Originally Posted by Tiki

If they are successful in KC, I could see them rolling the Sage-Google products and services out separately from Google Fiber, just so they can collect more data.

I believe that, regardless of how GoogleFiber works out in KC, we will see a third party (lower bandwidth) derivative of the TV offering for areas without Google Fiber. You can bet that GoogleTV and Android devices will be inter-operable with it.

Just remember, when controlling your TV by waving at it and talking to it -- it's watching and listening. The data to be collected there is something Google will not want to miss out on and Google knows that if they don't do it, Apple will. While the thought of it creeps most of us out, it seems the "youngsters" today that continue to twitter on their Facebook see it differently. (Can you imagine Google feeding you ads for marital counseling after you have an argument with your spouse? Sounds crazy, but it'll happen.)

Originally Posted by Tiki

If the KC experiment is successful, they could roll it into set-top boxes that they sell to Comcast and others. This might be a tough sell, but some providers of cable and satellite are already licensing TiVo, so why not Sage?

This may happen, but I suspect Google will try to be the provider, by streaming over broadband, first. Comcast, Dish and the like may then partner with them (or a competitor like Apple or Amazon) attempting to keep their TV offering relevant as customers drop to Internet only, dropping the cable package, using Google as their TV provider.

Of course we'll all start paying more for our internet access as a result, likely seeing metered billing, but finally opening the door to real competition in the market for both internet and TV.

But yes, this is all more of a Karl Rove "gut feeling" prediction than a Nate Silver "proven statistical model", so I'm prepared to eat crow.

[TwistedMelon]

Apple is in the business of selling gadgets and software (products) to consumers. Google is in the business of selling consumers (their product) to advertisers. There's a big difference. While Apple will collect some information, they generally view privacy as an important part of their customer relationship. The polar opposite of the Googles and Facebooks of this world.

[brainbone]

Originally Posted by TwistedMelon

Apple is in the business of selling gadgets and software (products) to consumers.

Reselling content (software, music, books, movies, tv shows) is a big portion of Apple's business, as is collecting data on their customers. Do you honestly expect Apple to release an "AppleTV" and not look to control the content? What do you think is holding up its release? Technological barriers or contractual?

Edit: Also see; https://developer.apple.com/iad/

[sumrtym]

Of course, the major component you miss in this is even if a refined Google / Sage system is sold to the public separately from fiber, it's not really going to take the place of the Sage we love.

1) Commercial skip will never be a part of the new system.
2) Access to your recorded shows will be gone. Forget saving them elsewhere, burning, etc. It's protected on the google fiber boxes and would be protected on an independent box.

To be honest, that part 2 is what kills the google fiber box for me. Sure, it's a great dvr and way better than anything available around here from companies such as TWC (that can't be overstated enough), but at the end of the day, it's still just a DVR that blocks my access to my recorded content, ie doing what I want with it.

If I didn't care about that, I'd be all about MCE with cablecard. Well, except for the fact I'm on TWC too with their protection on every single channel.

[panteragstk]

Am I the only one around here that doesn't archive recordings? I watch a show, then I delete the show.

[Rob]

No your not the only one.

I purchase anything I'm going to keep long term.

[brainbone]

Originally Posted by sumrtym

1) Commercial skip will never be a part of the new system.
2) Access to your recorded shows will be gone. Forget saving them elsewhere, burning, etc. It's protected on the google fiber boxes and would be protected on an independent box.

I didn't say it was a good thing, but it is the inevitable thing.

At least you'll be subjected to different commercials if you watch a show a second time, once Google completes their TV mission

[brainbone]

Originally Posted by panteragstk

Am I the only one around here that doesn't archive recordings? I watch a show, then I delete the show.

I tend to let them accumulate, only to do the "great purge" every few months.

[BobPhoenix]

I have 35TBs of recordings. Eliminating dupes might drop that to just under 30TBs of recorded shows.

[TwistedMelon]

I'd only expect Apple to release an actual television set (rather than a settop box) when they can make an affordable 4k or higher resolution screen. They'd be wasting their time and my investment dollars coming out with a low res 1920x1080 product.

At the moment the TV-set industry just can't support Apple's profit margins. It would really take something a lot more compelling than the iPhone was to mobiles when it was first unveiled in January 2007. The big problem with TV right now (forever) isn't the physical screen, it's the content, more specifically the content distribution.

But that doesn't mean I think Google is going far in TV. If anyone is going to get there, I think Apple will do it first, just not likely with an actual set nor with the current AppleTV. I'm comfortable with the "we'll see" position without speculating too much.

And with regards to Google's Sage-related forays, I'll just say that outside of basic search, I can't think of a single Google offering that I can't already find a better alternative for (and search is getting more and more debatable every day). I can also think of plenty of Google acquisitions that have been left to languish, so hopefully that doesn't happen to Sage. It would be nice if their team and product turned into the next Android, which frankly sucked before Google got in there and decided to use iOS for a new blueprint. The issue with TV/PVR is that there doesn't already exist something to copy. Sage is/was already very good.

[sumrtym]

I generally agree about deleting and wanting better copies (blu-ray or DVD rips of things you really want to keep), however, I can think of plenty of things that I like to keep that will never be sold that way.

For example, certain Travel channel shows, or an HGTV episode, etc.

[IVB]

Originally Posted by BobPhoenix

I have 35TBs of recordings. Eliminating dupes might drop that to just under 30TBs of recorded shows.

holy crap.

[brainbone]

Originally Posted by TwistedMelon

But that doesn't mean I think Google is going far in TV. If anyone is going to get there, I think Apple will do it first, just not likely with an actual set nor with the current AppleTV

Apple likely wont "do it first", they will just refine existing technologies, claim that they did it first, and more importantly sell it in a way that only Apple can do, like they've done with every other product.

Originally Posted by TwistedMelon

But that doesn't mean I think Google is going far in TV.

Google and Apple both want to be a huge presence in the living-room, and you can bet that both will not give up trying to make it happen. Google's ability to work with multiple hardware partners will give them a leg up, just like happened with Android.

Originally Posted by TwistedMelon

The big problem with TV right now (forever) isn't the physical screen, it's the content, more specifically the content distribution.

STB vs integrated, local vs remote DVR storage vs on-demand, screen resolution, etc. It doesn't matter to the average consumer. They just want to watch what they want, when they want to watch it, for the lowest price possible. It's the contracts behind Google Fiber TV that brings Google one step closer than others in rounding out their content offerings, not the technology.

[panteragstk]

Originally Posted by IVB

holy crap.

Took the words right out of my mouth.

[Fuzzy]

Originally Posted by IVB

holy crap.

This week, on "Digital Hoarders"...

[TwistedMelon]

Originally Posted by brainbone

Apple likely wont "do it first", they will just refine existing technologies, claim that they did it first, and more importantly sell it in a way that only Apple can do, like they've done with every other product.

I didn't mean that Apple will release nor offer the first solution. There were all kinds of media players out before AppleTV. GOogle already has a horse in the game too, but that's not what was intended.

If anyone will have a SUCCESS first, it will be Apple. It always has been for over 10 years. They define markets. And ultimately, that's what's important to the shareholders like me.

With regards to Android, I think consumers are winning with variety and some OEMs like Samsung have been able to edge themselves into better profits/positions, but Google's in no position to celebrate themselves. They make peanuts from Android at the moment and there's no obvious signs that's about to change any time soon. Smoke and mirrors and large activation numbers don't change that.

Having to choose a PVR solution today, the current SageTV still wins out over-all in my books.