Gates interview: HD, DVD, IPTV, CableCard

[korben_dallas]

From http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000400042080/

Let’s change gears a bit. There’s been a lot of talk recently about a possible compromise between HD-DVD and Blu-ray, but Microsoft isn’t mentioned in these discussions. You guys aren’t firmly in one camp or the other, but how important is a single unified standard to Microsoft?

Well there’re certainly some great features in terms of the fabrication costs that the Toshiba proposal has and there’s some capacity benefits from the Sony camp. And I’m not a hardcore hardware person to know if there is a way to get the best of both worlds, given the politics of who gets the patent royalties and the credit and into the market first and all that. It may take a little bit of time for this to be worked out. We’re not at the center of that because we’re not a hardware company, and yet we need to make sure that whatever comes out is supportable in Windows. And there’re some configurations of those devices a year ago that in terms of the way they were thinking about things technically wouldn’t have worked well with the PC environment. We’ve made significant progress with both camps on that. For example, supporting what we call VC 1 as an encoder that we have as a feature in Windows. Not exclusively, but as one of the required things that happened like six months ago. That was a great milestone for us.

Microsoft is basically agnostic towards either format?

[Long pause] We want to see a single format, and we think it’s best for the PC industry for a single format to emerge. That won’t necessarily happen and if it doesn’t then to some degree we’ll have to support both formats.
If there is a stalemate, which format do you think will come out ahead?

I really wouldn’t want to pick that. I think you basically would have a stalemate because who’s going to buy movie thinking that they’re buying a Beta movie? I think it would freeze the marketplace. That’s why there’s so much pressure to try and get this resolved. I think basically the winner of [any stalemate] will be called DVD. And HD movies, at least those delivered on an optical disc, would be set back two or three years.

That actually leads to my next question about home entertainment and the PC. Microsoft has a lot of behind the scenes initiatives right now, but what do you think the relationship is between the Media Center PC and then something like Foundation, Microsoft’s software for set-top boxes?

Let me try to be succinct about this. In the home you’re going to have a variety of devices. So you’ll have a set-top box which you can think of as kind of the simplest device. It will clearly be able to handle digital rights management and deal with high definition digital video. And then you’ll have something like a video game that will be a superset of that. And so, for example, Xenon is more powerful than any next-generation set-top box and it can be used as a set-top box, but obviously it can do a lot more than that; you can run the entertainment and other software there.

Then you have a Media Center PC that’s even beyond that in terms of storage and the kind of ecosystem that exists in the PC world. And so in the case of the set-top box you typically would store the video back on the server, either the Media Center server in the home, or the your video provider server back at the head-end. And that does have an advantage over sticking a hard disk on everything because you don’t even have to think about recording something [ahead of time]. The old shows are just there. There are various rights issues to work out on this, but we’ve got the user interface and IPTV gives you the ability to watch a show anytime you want without having planned that before the show’s aired or having this hard disk in your living room. You shouldn’t have to have that.

Anyway so all these things that have to work together in the home, and the cheapest device is that set-top box. We’re working with the cable industry and the telco industry on that piece and then we do all this server software for them. You’re right that this IPTV thing is very exciting and it doesn’t get that much visibility because you know right now the design wins are with cable and telco, and until they roll out big numbers the people won’t get that TV is going to change, and that the way you’re going to serve, the way you’re going to find things, the way you’re going to interact with the ads, the way you’re going to think about DVRs, that’s just going to change. And even the boundary between what’s an interactive game and what’s TV, that boundary—of course there will still be those two poles—but there’ll be things that are even in the middle in terms of learning and game shows. Some of this stuff was talked about 15 years ago when we first got into this and those dreams are becoming a reality.

But how does the Media Center PC, for instance, survive the transition to digital TV? It seems like there’s a lot of resistance on the part of the cable companies to provide the kind of support for CableCARD that third-party digital video recorders, be it a Media Center PC or TiVo, really need to be a part of that ecosystem you’re talking about.

Oh, we’ll get support for CableCARD into Media Center. That’s the whole idea of enabling different end devices to connect to the cable network. I mean there are a lot of efforts to enable that to happen. We’re working hard with the cable industry right now to get through the specific qualifications there. But that’s a very necessary thing and it’s nice that the framework guarantees that end devices can get connected up on an objective basis. So we’re off doing that. In fact, we have good relationships with the cable industry that are hopefully helping us get that done faster. So we will do that. We have a DTV over-the-air antenna capability in some of the Media Center PCs today, but we really want easy access to all video sources. Today what you have to do is you have to do an analog to digital convert back in, and that’s a little bit harder to set up, a little bit more expensive, and you give up a little bit of quality when you do that. You really want to have those digital bits directly, but they reasonably want to make sure that there’s some degree of protection there as good as, say, they have on DVD or other things.

[silkshadow]

Interesting, though this (IPTV) sounds like its going to be a provider supported system with DRM up the wazoo. Meaning more $$ from the user and more hassles in doing anything with the content. As it is, when I was living in the US, Time Warner was just testing their VOD service (I was in a Time Warner testing area) and it was like $4.00 everytime I used it. For me, I would rather limit the middleman as much as possible and keep a Sage-type server locally.

[sleonard]

Oh, we’ll get support for CableCARD into Media Center.

The most important statement of the whole interview. If MS gets cablecard support for XP MC then that support can follow into the third party DVR market (read SageTV). Alternatively, if they don't get it then it is highly unlikely that the third party market ever will. Kind of ironic that DVR makers like SageTV (and BTV, Meedio, etc.) have to depend on the largest and most powerful competitor in this way.

Of course we could always continue using the analog to digital PVR cards and stay limited to standard definition (OTA excluded) but if XP MC will eventually offer direct connections to digital cable/satelite content, Sage, BTV, etc. will have to also support it or slowly watch their business jump ship. Personally I think that would be a sad thing to see happen and I hope to see cablecard PCI addins that replace my STB's. become available to everyone regardless of which DVR app they use.

Unfortunately, DRM is the poison pill that must be swallowed in order for any of this to happen, I just hope it doesn't end up too draconion. I don't hold much hope however

I should also mention the one solution that I can see that would keep the small guys like Sage in the game and that is high def versions of the PVR 150/250/etc. cards. A PCI card that accepts a hi-def component signal + multi-channel digital audio input and redigitizes it into a standard mpeg 2 or 4 file. I have more hope for this and would even prefer the slight loss in quality to the DRM that will come with cablecards.

[korben_dallas]

Originally Posted by sleonard

Unfortunately, DRM is the poison pill that must be swallowed in order for any of this to happen, I just hope it doesn't end up too draconion. I don't hold much hope however

I should also mention the one solution that I can see that would keep the small guys like Sage in the game and that is high def versions of the PVR 150/250/etc. cards. A PCI card that accepts a hi-def component signal + multi-channel digital audio input and redigitizes it into a standard mpeg 2 or 4 file. I have more hope for this and would even prefer the slight loss in quality to the DRM that will come with cablecards.

Your "poison pill" statement pretty much sums it up nicely. Although a component video & digital audio capable encoder card sounds nice, I just don't see it happening without the 500 pound DRM gorilla on its back. Sure, Hauppauge could just go off and do it, but then they place themselves in a precarious legal spot where they can get sued for all their money, even if they aren't in the wrong, and win the battle but lose the war (i.e. go out of business due to the financial strain).

[sleonard]

The nice thing about the theoretical component HD video encoder is that it isn't possible to do DRM in the card. Any DRM would be lost when the sending device converted the signal to analog. Also, such a device could be justified in that it just converts a users source video to digital, that source very well could be a perfectly legal source such as an HD video camera.
Still, you may be right in that it wouldn't matter. Hollywood doesn't necesarily need to have a sound legal case as long as they can ramp up prohibitive legal fees for whoever they sue.
Last, I have heard a number of believable net rumors that such a card is in the works and may be coming sooner than we'd think. /me keeps my fingers crossed

[stanger89]

Originally Posted by sleonard

The nice thing about the theoretical component HD video encoder is that it isn't possible to do DRM in the card. Any DRM would be lost when the sending device converted the signal to analog.

Tell that to the people getting DRM'd by CGMS-A in MCE.

Also, such a device could be justified in that it just converts a users source video to digital, that source very well could be a perfectly legal source such as an HD video camera.

The problem is consumer have no source of uncompressed HD, HD video cameras record to MPEG-2 AFIAK, and you don't capture it you just stream directly off the camera, like DV.

Still, you may be right in that it wouldn't matter. Hollywood doesn't necesarily need to have a sound legal case as long as they can ramp up prohibitive legal fees for whoever they sue.
Last, I have heard a number of believable net rumors that such a card is in the works and may be coming sooner than we'd think. /me keeps my fingers crossed

The problem is that with consumers having no source of uncompressed HD, it is 1) hard to justify the cost of such a device when consumers can (with DRM) access the encoded bitstream directly, with better quality, and 2) hard to come up with a legitimate use, about the only use would be to bypass copy protection.

[salsbst]

The nice thing about the theoretical component HD video encoder is that it isn't possible to do DRM in the card. Any DRM would be lost when the sending device converted the signal to analog. Also, such a device could be justified in that it just converts a users source video to digital, that source very well could be a perfectly legal source such as an HD video camera.
Still, you may be right in that it wouldn't matter. Hollywood doesn't necesarily need to have a sound legal case as long as they can ramp up prohibitive legal fees for whoever they sue.
Last, I have heard a number of believable net rumors that such a card is in the works and may be coming sooner than we'd think. /me keeps my fingers crossed

There is such a card, it just costs $3000 (and doesn't handle re-encoding, so you'd have to store the raw video, at least temporarily):

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...hreadid=526531

[stanger89]

An HD SDI card + HD Component -> HD-SDI converter is cheaper, but no more practical.

[PGPfan]

For me, this whole debate over an HD capture card is becoming more and more of a moot point everyday. Frankly, I just don't care anymore. The content providers have pissed me off so badly that there is very little chance of me going HD now. I don't like the politics game they are trying to play (claiming 'lost?' money due to possible piracy), the 'forced ads', the 'skipping commercials is stealing, etc., etc., on and on....

I DO have a display capable of well over HD resolution, and I enjoy it every day with DVD's. As long as I can 'upscale' the signal, I don't NEED HD. I've seen it, and although it is arguably better (due to limited true HD content, and the limited choice of subject matter that is available in HD broadcasts) I'll just enjoy Sage enableing me to watch TV on "my time schedule".

-PGPfan

[Crazedz]

You really want to have those digital bits directly, but they reasonably want to make sure that there’s some degree of protection there as good as, say, they have on DVD or other things.

Oh that's rich protection as good as DVD! Fat lot of good DVD protection did them. Their's programs that have been out for years that strip thoughs protections off the dvd content. DRM in media player 10 has already been cracked and i'd be very suprised if their isn't or wont soon be a way to strip the DRM or newter it in MCE. The biggest hope that the MPAA lot had of trying to prevent this was the broadcast flag and that's already been overruled. Not that they wont try other ways of getting it or something similar put in place but with the past track record of such atempts Deccs, Macromedia and DRM how can they seriously maintain this illusion that they can lockdown the content from the public (rhetorical question)?

I guess it's their money to waste on futile atempts to stop the unstopable. This whole matter should be under the heading of iresistable force meets unmoveable object, The scientific community would enthraled and entranced by it.