Anybody else a total geek? (CES keynote)

[mayamaniac]

Originally Posted by jominor

Put me in the stupid camp. I don't believe increased interactivity is compelling for consumers, certainly not me. This is contrived usefulness justify higher price ala "premium" content.

For movies, I believe that the advantages of HD-DVD are minimal to non-existent.

you guys are all nuts.

Comparing two products and you don't see any reasons why DVDs will be replaced?

DVD (480p, 4.7-9G, archaic menu system)
HD-DVD (1080p, 20-45G, more interactive menus)

Again, the menu stuffs just show the possibilities. I can think of many scenarios where it will be cool to have those features. As for storage capacities, thats a no brainer, imagine how many of your favorite TV episodes that can hold. And when I pay to buy my favorite movie, the higher the resolution, the better.

What sucks is a lot of people have or starting to have a nice movie collection on DVDs (ripped or originals) and invested in an HDTV system, so with HD versions out, they'll have to redo the collection again if they want to experience HD goodness. That could be very costly.

[stanger89]

Originally Posted by mayamaniac

you guys are all nuts.

Comparing two products and you don't see any reasons why DVDs will be replaced?

DVD (480p, 4.7-9G, archaic menu system)
HD-DVD (1080p, 20-45G, more interactive menus)

I know why they want to replace it, but to the vast majority of J6P (with $30 DVD players) they don't care about 480p or 1080p, they just know that DVD already looks a lot better than broadcast. I seriously doubt that HD-DVD or Blu-ray will be the hit they expect it to be.

All the same claims were made before DVD-A and SACD were launched, and both fell flat on their face.

There's no driving desire from the mass market for anything better than DVD. HD-DVD and Blu-ray are being pushed by the content companies (primarilly) as a way to secure their content, and create new sources of revenue, the CE/IT companies are along for the ride.

Without customer desire neither format will take off.

Again, the menu stuffs just show the possibilities. I can think of many scenarios where it will be cool to have those features.

I can't

As for storage capacities, thats a no brainer, imagine how many of your favorite TV episodes that can hold.

The only series I've heard of mentioned on next-gen formats is Stargate Atlantis. Sure it will be nice to get a whole season (of SD) on a single disc, but how many customers would buy a new (currently) $500+ player to play SD TV shows?

And when I pay to buy my favorite movie, the higher the resolution, the better.

In the absense of DRM, I'd agree, as it stands, I'm going to have to wait and see if the whole HD-DVD/Blu-ray package is superior to the current DVD package.

What sucks is a lot of people have or starting to have a nice movie collection on DVDs (ripped or originals) and invested in an HDTV system, so with HD versions out, they'll have to redo the collection again if they want to experience HD goodness. That could be very costly.

I have no plans on re-buying my collection, and that's part of the problem. DVD enjoyed "exagerated" sales due to people building/rebuilding their libraries. DVD was the first convenient, robust, high-quality, inexpensive format that allowed people to build large collections. Lots of back catalog releases/sales artificially inflated the DVD market, and as can be seen by the trends in DVD sales, that inflation is "loosing preasure" as there are less and less back catalog titles left for people to purchase.

That is one of the reasons the studios are desperate for the next "big thing" (CD has the same problem), and lots of companies are betting a lot of money that HD-DVD/Blu-ray is that thing. I think they're in for a surprise.

[jominor]

Originally Posted by mayamaniac

you guys are all nuts.

Comparing two products and you don't see any reasons why DVDs will be replaced?

DVD (480p, 4.7-9G, archaic menu system)
HD-DVD (1080p, 20-45G, more interactive menus)

Again, the menu stuffs just show the possibilities. I can think of many scenarios where it will be cool to have those features. As for storage capacities, thats a no brainer, imagine how many of your favorite TV episodes that can hold. And when I pay to buy my favorite movie, the higher the resolution, the better.

What sucks is a lot of people have or starting to have a nice movie collection on DVDs (ripped or originals) and invested in an HDTV system, so with HD versions out, they'll have to redo the collection again if they want to experience HD goodness. That could be very costly.

Well, I think "nuts" is a bit strong. I just don't care about menus. That just stuff to get through to to do the one think I do want to do which is WATCH THE MOVIE. I don't buy movies to watch menus, I buy them to watch movies.

I rip movies to divx and one reason is so I don't have to sit through animated, looping, eye candy that adds *nothing* to the movie.

[Edit]
One more thing, this is not about HD-DVD storage. Obviously, bigger storage is better even though 200+ gig drives make even 50gig DVDs seem small. What I'm talking about is HD-DVD movies with interactive, unneeded stuff.

[mayamaniac]

Originally Posted by stanger89

I know why they want to replace it, but to the vast majority of J6P (with $30 DVD players) they don't care about 480p or 1080p, they just know that DVD already looks a lot better than broadcast. I seriously doubt that HD-DVD or Blu-ray will be the hit they expect it to be.

Just remember how long it took DVDs to mature. I think The Matrix DVD was the first DVD that sold well. It takes time.

Originally Posted by stanger89

All the same claims were made before DVD-A and SACD were launched, and both fell flat on their face.

There's no driving desire from the mass market for anything better than DVD. HD-DVD and Blu-ray are being pushed by the content companies (primarilly) as a way to secure their content, and create new sources of revenue, the CE/IT companies are along for the ride.

Without customer desire neither format will take off..

Again, it will take time, but they need to push now than later. And we all see the trend before, of course the first adopters are the niche market, thats always the case with any new technology. But over time, they will get cheaper and more accepted. The HD-DVD/Blu-Ray thing is a mess, the sooner they resolve that, the sooner the product can mature.

Originally Posted by stanger89

I can't

Lack of imagination?

Originally Posted by stanger89

The only series I've heard of mentioned on next-gen formats is Stargate Atlantis. Sure it will be nice to get a whole season (of SD) on a single disc, but how many customers would buy a new (currently) $500+ player to play SD TV shows?

In the absense of DRM, I'd agree, as it stands, I'm going to have to wait and see if the whole HD-DVD/Blu-ray package is superior to the current DVD package.

Until it is officially resolve, its only speculation to how far they will go with the DRM crap. Its already a good sign that MS allows backing to HDD as they demo in the CES keynotes.

Originally Posted by stanger89

That is one of the reasons the studios are desperate for the next "big thing" (CD has the same problem), and lots of companies are betting a lot of money that HD-DVD/Blu-ray is that thing. I think they're in for a surprise.

maybe, but even if they can't market the content, OEMs can still market the drives and consumers will want them just for affordable storage or backup solutions. Look at SageTV users who are recording HD contents, how are you gonna burn those shows onto a DVD?

Ok, I'm done with this discussion. I won't post anymore about it, you can have the last say.

[stanger89]

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