Google bought Motorola Mobility

[wayner]

Originally Posted by sacrament055

That's kind of what I was getting at. Maybe we'll see cable company set top boxes running Android with the option to add "Apps"

I don't think that is likely to happen - here is a quote from today's WSJ

Also uncertain is how much benefit Google will get out of Mobility's set-top box business. Google could theoretically use the business to promote YouTube but that would likely alienate the cable TV operators that buy those boxes.

[gplasky]

Originally Posted by wayner

I don't think that is likely to happen - here is a quote from today's WSJ

All depends where you do your reading:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/gaming....tml?hpt=te_bn2

"The problem with innovation in the television industry is the go-to-market strategy.

The television industry has a subsidized model that gives everyone a set-top box for free, or for $10 per month. That pretty much squashes any opportunity for innovation, because nobody's willing to buy a set top box. Ask TiVo, ask Roku, ask us.

Ask Google in a few months.

The only way that's ever going to change is if you can really go back to square one, tear up the set top box, redesign it from scratch with a consistent UI across all these different functions, and get it to consumers in a way that they're willing to pay for it. And right now there's no way to do that.

The TV is going to lose until there's a viable -- go to market strategy. Otherwise you're just making another TiVo.

It's not a problem with technology, not a problem with vision, it's a fundamental go to market problem... And then it not like there's a GSM standard where you build a phone for the US and it also works in all these other countries.

No, every single country has different standards, different government approvals, it's very... Tower of Babelish. It's very balkanized.

"I'm sure smarter people than us will figure this out, but that's why when we say Apple TV a hobby; that's why we use that phrase." (quoted from Steve Jobs)

With Motorola, Google now has a way into the living room that not only solves this go-to-market problem, but solves it in a way that's quintessentially Google: consumers get the box for free, they pay the cable and satellite companies for the content, and Google makes its money on the back end.

Now Google doesn't have to make all-new deals with content owners or cable providers; it can leverage Motorola's existing relationships. It doesn't have to convince consumers to buy a smart TV or smart Blu-Ray player or anything else. All it has to get them to do is use a new box or, like TiVo, put a new card in the box that's already attached to their television set.

"There is great convergence between the mobile world and content that comes to the home through set-top boxes," Motorola Mobility CEO Sanjay Jha said on a call announcing the acquisition. "Working with the carriers, we'll be able to accelerate that convergence which will excite customers."

Cable customers could use some excitement. Motorola never made great software, and cable companies for the most part make terrible software. TiVo and Apple both make good software, but couldn't get over that problem of buying another box.

Google makes very good software, and will soon be making set-top boxes too. And since Motorola holds at least a few patents on DVR technology, they can't be ignored.

Gerry

[wayner]

My point is that cable companies still control the customer and they call the shots on what box is allowed to hook into their network (with a slight exception for CableCards in some jurisdictions). The new Googorola could come out with a great new box that integrates Cable TV, Netlfix, Hulu, Youtube, SageTV, etc that would provide a fantastic user experience but, at least IMHO, the cable companies would not allow that since it will cannibalize their existing business modle where the ARPU is around $70/month compared to the $8/month from Netflix, Hulu, etc.

[Fonceur]

Originally Posted by wayner

My point is that cable companies still control the customer and they call the shots on what box is allowed to hook into their network (with a slight exception for CableCards in some jurisdictions).

Actually, most cable companies are locked with a set-top box manufacturer, either Motorola or Cisco/Scientific America/Pace, they can't just switch to the another as their infrastructure would be incompatible... So if Motorola were to stop producing non-GoogleTV boxes, the cable companies wouldn't have much choice...

[panteragstk]

Originally Posted by wayner

My point is that cable companies still control the customer and they call the shots on what box is allowed to hook into their network (with a slight exception for CableCards in some jurisdictions). The new Googorola could come out with a great new box that integrates Cable TV, Netlfix, Hulu, Youtube, SageTV, etc that would provide a fantastic user experience but, at least IMHO, the cable companies would not allow that since it will cannibalize their existing business modle where the ARPU is around $70/month compared to the $8/month from Netflix, Hulu, etc.

The cable companies are going to have to rethink their strategy some day anyway. Why not make that happen sooner? Hulu and Netflix have any show you want to watch at your fingertips. Quality isn't as good, but let pretend that it is (plus most cable/satellite customer wouldn't know what quality is anyway). Would you rather have to go through the effort of recording a show, or would you rather not have to worry and watch it whenever you wanted because you could just browse around hulu for the show the day after it airs (except for stupid FOX)? You can watch things on your time and not worry about missing a recording. Sports wouldn't fit this model obviously so that portion would stay the same.

The way people watch TV is changing whether cable/satellite providers like it or not. Why not be a provider that actually knows what is going on in the current age instead of pretending it is 1995 and you either subscribe to a channel package or you don't watch the show. Either you change with the times or you cease to be relevant.

[wayner]

Originally Posted by Fonceur

Actually, most cable companies are locked with a set-top box manufacturer, either Motorola or Cisco/Scientific America/Pace, they can't just switch to the another as their infrastructure would be incompatible... So if Motorola were to stop producing non-GoogleTV boxes, the cable companies wouldn't have much choice...

Then it could become a Mexican standoff between the cable company and Googorola. It must be techinically feasible to have more than one manufacturer on your network as Rogers cable in Ontario does support SA/Cisco as well as Pace - or at least they did support Pace a few years ago. And given the fact that CableCards are supported, at least in the US, then it should be doable to use SA/Cisco boxes if Googorola is no longer an option.

[wayner]

Originally Posted by panteragstk

The way people watch TV is changing whether cable/satellite providers like it or not. Why not be a provider that actually knows what is going on in the current age instead of pretending it is 1995 and you either subscribe to a channel package or you don't watch the show. Either you change with the times or you cease to be relevant.

I totally agree with you but I don't see the cable companies getting there in the near future although my cable company does provide some shows OnDemand that is similar to Hulu except the UI is Soviet-like and the box tends to crash when using OnDemand.

[Fonceur]

Originally Posted by wayner

It must be techinically feasible to have more than one manufacturer on your network as Rogers cable in Ontario does support SA/Cisco as well as Pace - or at least they did support Pace a few years ago.

SA/Cisco/Pace are all using the same technology, which is why they are all used on the same cable system... But you wouldn't see Motorola mixed in there, which was my point...

[wayner]

True but if the cable companies ever decide to go to MPEG-4 they are going to have to make a lot of changes which could be a good time to switch STB suppliers.

[reggie14]

Originally Posted by Fonceur

SA/Cisco/Pace are all using the same technology, which is why they are all used on the same cable system... But you wouldn't see Motorola mixed in there, which was my point...

Comcast mixes those together. I think I remember Mediacom having SA and Motorola boxes when I lived in Iowa.

[Fonceur]

Originally Posted by reggie14

Comcast mixes those together. I think I remember Mediacom having SA and Motorola boxes when I lived in Iowa.

Really? Are you sure that they do it on the same network, and it's not that different areas/cities might have been using different ones?

[tvmaster2]

Originally Posted by panteragstk

Of course. It just means directv and dish don't use them (for now anyway). If they actually do this right I can see directv and dish using their stb as it should be the most fully featured to ever exist. If they do it right.

Cox Communications uses them - that's a fair number of installs

[sleonard]

Cox in the Phoenix metro uses both SA and Motorola.

S

[baudfather]

I don't think providers are dependent on single manufacturers, they likely just want to keep their IT and support costs down by sticking with a single series. Shaw Cable here in Canada uses both Pace and Moto boxes, and now a behemoth 6-tuner Arris box (Shaw's link here)... Does any other provider even use this hardware? I think Google really needs to get moving on this if they're going to keep up to this one (if people are willing to pay for it).

One thing that was built into Sage, but never utilized, and is a huge asset to Google if they implement it, is the anonymous end user statistics. Google makes their main profits from advertising and selling statistical data to advertisers.

I have a feeling we're on the dawn of the death of the hobbyist SageTV homebrew PC box we've all come to love (myself included). Hopefully (in the near future) we see an OOBE that offers the majority of the features now in use with Sage, plus the open platform Google nurtures. It's impossible to predict anything that Google's going to be doing with Sage, but adding Moto to their portfolio makes me think good things are coming.

[Torkild]

Originally Posted by wayner

True but if the cable companies ever decide to go to MPEG-4 they are going to have to make a lot of changes which could be a good time to switch STB suppliers.

In Denmark and most of EU cable companies are using mpeg4 and Motorola chips

[Fuzzy]

Originally Posted by Torkild

In Denmark and most of EU cable companies are using mpeg4 and Motorola chips

I think the hope is that change will coincide with the adoption of allvid (I'm sure that's google's hope, at least). Currently though, since all their current hardware works with SDV, there isn't as much need to go with mpeg-4.

[thomaszoo]

Originally Posted by Fonceur

Really? Are you sure that they do it on the same network, and it's not that different areas/cities might have been using different ones?

I know in the Comcast Sacramento market there are both Motorola and Pace boxes. In fact, my Brother in Law has both in his house.

Wayne

[ccsmoke]

My speculation is since the knock on android is it acts differently from device to device. Motorolla will probably become the main hardware manufactor for android devices. Letting LG, Sony, Samsung, and HTC go to the wayside. This gives better quality control in a closed system much like Apple. Since they only had 1000 patents at the start of the year, picking up 1000 more from IBM and over 16,000 in this aquisition, it helps slow down the lawsuits.

If they do come out with a STB, it will be like the sagetv/appletv cloud based. I don't think cable companies would ever partner as they want nothing to do with allvid or FCC. So i think Google, Apple, and Amazon will get in a bidding war for the major networks.

Finally a one stop shop would not be complete without the social aspect. Google+, voice, email etc. are well known but what's interesting to me is the gaming aspect with webgl...could very well steal apple and facebook's thunder...more time people spend on facebook the less revenue for google.

ray traced in a browser
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=R0O_9bp3EKQ

[reggie14]

Originally Posted by ccsmoke

My speculation is since the knock on android is it acts differently from device to device. Motorolla will probably become the main hardware manufactor for android devices. Letting LG, Sony, Samsung, and HTC go to the wayside. This gives better quality control in a closed system much like Apple.

I actually expect Google to sell off the phone manufacturing business at some point so this doesn't happen. I suspect this is one area where Google doesn't want to be like Apple. I really don't think they want to push Samsung and HTC to Windows Phone 7. Just keeping the phone manufacturing business will probably scare off HTC and Samsung.

Originally Posted by ccsmoke

If they do come out with a STB, it will be like the sagetv/appletv cloud based. I don't think cable companies would ever partner as they want nothing to do with allvid or FCC. So i think Google, Apple, and Amazon will get in a bidding war for the major networks.

I kind of think the STB business is even less desirable than the phone business. Motorola's STB business is huge. In its current form it doesn't really jive with the rest of Google's business. Changing it to something different would be extremely risky, given that they could just sell it off and make a pretty good chunk of their money back.

[stevech]

Originally Posted by Fonceur

Actually, most cable companies are locked with a set-top box manufacturer, either Motorola or Cisco/Scientific America/Pace, they can't just switch to the another as their infrastructure would be incompatible... So if Motorola were to stop producing non-GoogleTV boxes, the cable companies wouldn't have much choice...

Time Warner uses high quanties of Cisco/Scientific, Samsung and rumored (or OBE), Motorola.

My Samsung DVR's UI, at 16:9, is excellent - much better than I expected. The UI is well thought out. Better than Sage in many regards, according to a non-geek daily user here.

Except for the DVR's DRM protected recording files. This is the reason Sage still runs here - with an HD PVR and another Samsung box for the analog hole. It's an archiving recorder - something the TImeWarner DVR will never do.